Which Bundesliga teams could bookmakers be undervaluing right now?

The Bundesliga table is still taking shape, but the first few weeks of a season can already reveal some interesting discrepancies between results and underlying performances. 

That is particularly relevant for anyone following the league for fantasy football or betting markets. A team’s league position does not necessarily tell the whole story. Some sides can collect points despite relatively poor underlying numbers, while others may be producing much better performances than their results suggest.

So which Bundesliga teams could currently be underrated by the betting market? Rather than simply looking at the table, consider several factors: expected goals, expected points, defensive and attacking performances, recent results, and the prices currently available for upcoming matches.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Better than their point tally suggests?

Bayer Leverkusen is an obvious candidate. After four matches, Leverkusen had collected seven points and sat fifth in the table. On the surface, that is a solid but hardly spectacular start. However, their underlying numbers paint a more positive picture.

Leverkusen had produced 10.44 expected goals while conceding just 3,42, according to xG data from the opening four games. Their expected points total was 9.64, almost three points higher than their actual tally.

That difference matters. A team sitting fifth with seven points can look relatively ordinary. A team whose performance aligns more closely with a nine- or ten-point start looks considerably stronger.

The market appears to recognize some of that strength. Ahead of their trip to Mainz, Leverkusen were priced as slight favorites, but the gap was relatively small. Available prices put the visitors at around 2.20 to 2.50, compared with roughly 2.75 to 3.00 for Mainz. That suggests the bookmakers are certainly not ignoring Leverkusen. But it is worth asking whether the market is fully accounting for the underlying numbers.

If their chance creation continues at a similar level, Leverkusen could become particularly interesting when facing teams that receive more attention simply because of their league position.

1. FSV Mainz 05: A team that deserves more respect

Mainz is an even more interesting case. Seven points from four matches have put them sixth in the Bundesliga. Their ten goals are another reason for optimism. However, the underlying numbers suggest their position isn't simply the result of an unsustainable run of finishing.

Mainz had generated 10.54 expected goals while conceding 6.20. Their expected-points figure of 8.01 was also higher than their actual seven points. In other words, there is little evidence that Mainz have simply been lucky to collect their points.

The market is still giving Leverkusen a slight edge ahead of the meeting between the two sides. That is understandable given Leverkusen’s recent history and squad quality, but Mainz could be closer to their opponents' level than the perception of the two clubs suggests.

That makes Mainz one of the teams worth monitoring rather than automatically dismissing whenever they face one of the Bundesliga’s traditional heavyweights.
 

VfB Stuttgart: The table may be misleading

Stuttgart's current position is a good example of why looking only at the Bundesliga table can be dangerous. 

Three points from four matches and a goal difference of minus three make for an uncomfortable start. Stuttgart currently sit 15th, but their underlying numbers are not dramatically worse than their results indicate. 

The current problem is that Stuttgart has scored only six goals from an xG of 8.11 while simultaneously conceding too many big chances. Consequently, they have underperformed in attack and need to defend better to turn things around.

That does not make Stuttgart a good bet until these problems are solved. But it does suggest that the team should not necessarily be treated like a relegation-level side.

The upcoming trip to Paderborn illustrated the point. Stuttgart were clear favorites in the match market, with prices around 1.50 to 1.75 available for an away win. The interesting question, then, is not simply whether Stuttgart can win, but whether the market’s longer-term assessment of the club will change if their underlying performances begin to translate into results.
 

Werder Bremen: More competitive than the results suggest

Bremen have also made a respectable start, with seven points from four games. Their eight goals are encouraging, but their underlying defensive numbers provide a real reason for optimism. Bremen had conceded eight goals while their expected goals against figure was closer to 6.4

That does not guarantee an improvement in results, but it suggests their defensive record may have been slightly worse than the quality of chances conceded would imply. While this was certainly solid, the offense overperformed. The result was seven points instead of 4.62 expected points.

Bremen is therefore another team whose market perception could become interesting over the next few matchdays. 

Their next fixture against Borussia Dortmund provides a particularly useful test. Dortmund have won all four of their league matches and lead the table, but their twelve points are considerably higher than their estimated 8.1 expected points. That does not mean Dortmund are a bad team or played badly. It simply means that the gap between the two clubs could be smaller than the league table currently suggests.
 

The biggest lesson: Don’t confuse results with performance

The early Bundesliga table already offers several reasons why fantasy football and betting markets shouldn't be viewed independently of football analysis. 

Dortmund’s perfect record deserves respect, but their expected-points total suggests they have taken advantage of several favorable moments. Augsburg, meanwhile, had seven points despite an expected-points figure of only 4.65 after four games.

That is exactly why identifying potentially underrated teams is more complicated than simply finding clubs with long odds. The most interesting candidates are those where the underlying performance is stronger than the public perception.

When a team appears underrated, the next step is to check whether the betting market has already recognized the trend. For readers looking for good odds for underrated teams, it is worth checking the latest Bundesliga odds boosts on MySportwetten.de, where enhanced odds on selected Bundesliga betting markets are listed.

Ultimately, there is no guarantee that an apparently underrated team will win the next match. That is not the point. The value of this approach is identifying situations where the market’s perception and the underlying football numbers may not completely agree. And in a league as competitive as the Bundesliga, those discrepancies can be worth watching.

Note: All Bundesliga numbers mentioned are from Understat.com, the specialized platform for expected goals, points, and more.