FC Bayern vs. FC St. Pauli preview: Can the Bavarians bounce back?

Bayern Munich enter the weekend looking to bounce back: After a commanding start to the Bundesliga season, the Rekordmeister suffered their first defeat of the 2025/26 campaign in midweek, falling 1-3 to Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League.

Despite that setback, Vincent Kompany’s side have otherwise paired fluid, incisive attacking play with renewed defensive stability, and their domestic rhythm remains strong. Back at the Allianz Arena, Bayern will be eager to reassert control and return to winning ways.

St. Pauli travel to Munich well aware of the size of the challenge. Under Alexander Blessin, the Kiezkicker wanted to built on their first-year survival by developing a clear, energetic identity: structured pressing, disciplined defensive lines, and fast, direct transitional moments.

However, this development is not visible if you look at the current standings: St. Pauli sit in 16th and are facing tough competition in the fight for survival in the Bundesliga. Can this match have a positive impact on the team from Hamburg?

After Bayern’s midweek stumble, Blessin’s men will sense an opportunity: if they stay compact and precise, they may be able to exploit any lingering frustration or defensive complacency.

Recent history between Bayern and St. Pauli

Recent Bundesliga meetings remain limited, and the overall balance of history still heavily favors Bayern - especially in Munich, where St. Pauli have struggled to take points. But stylistically, this matchup can be tricky: St. Pauli’s aggressive pressing triggers, combined with quick breaks, have the potential to trouble Bayern if the champions let any selfdoubt after their first loss of the season in.

Side note: With Bayern eager to wash away the Arsenal loss, the opening phase could be particularly intense.

Team news

Bayern Munich:
Jamal Musiala and Alphonso Davies are still unavailable, while Hiroki Ito could even make a return to the starting eleven after his short comeback last week against Freiburg.

You'd imagine that FCB coach Vincent Kompany will be rotating his starting eleven after the intense game midweek - whether stars like Kane and Olise will start remains uncertain.

St. Pauli:
Aside from long-term absentee David Nemeth, St. Pauli have their full senior squad available. With most players spared heavy international schedules two weeks ago, the group should arrive ready and well-rested - a valuable asset when facing Bayern's intensity.

Prediction

This matchup offers a clear tactical contrast: Bayern will aim to regain their authority, dominating possession with structured buildup and fluid combinations, while also proving that the setback against Arsenal was only a brief interruption.

St. Pauli will likely sit compact, crowd central zones, and strike on the counter when Bayern commit numbers forward.

For the visitors, surviving Bayern’s early push - especially after the frustration of midweek - will be crucial. For Bayern, avoiding transitional vulnerabilities and breaking down a disciplined block without impatience is the key.

Given home advantage, squad depth, and overall form, Bayern remain strong favorites. St. Pauli may slow the champions down, but Bayern’s quality and motivation to respond after their first loss of the season should carry them through.

Predicted lineups

Bayern Munich (4-2-3-1):
Neuer - Boey, Upamecano, Kim, Bischof - Goretzka, Kimmich - Olise, Guerreiro, Díaz - Kane

St. Pauli (3-5-2):

Vasilj - Wahl, Smith, Mets - Pyrka, Fujita, Irvine, Sands, Oppie - Hountondji, Pereira Lage