January 2025 Transfer Primer: FC Bayern München

FC Bayern München

Estimated Autumn Transfer Balance = -€67 million

One cannot begin to contemplate a section about the record champions without harkening back to the famed Netflix serial "The Last Dance". With so many contracts set to expire at the end of the season, one wonders if the long-term strategy of FCB management revolves around deliberately breaking up the dynastic portions of this roster and starting anew. Likening American sports with the German league system obviously doesn't truly work. A "rebuilding year" for Bayern doesn't translate to intentionally losing matches in pursuit of a coveted draft pick. Bayern will always be expected to win. 

The tendency towards extending with familiar faces nevertheless doesn't extend much beyond the goalkeeping portion of the roster. The Alphonso Davies situation reminds one much of Bayern's obstinacy in the face of David Alaba's salary demands four years ago. Reports from reliable sources continue to suggest that Max Eberl and Christoph Freund maintain no real interest in keeping Leroy Sané. Loyal hearts Joshua Kimmich and Thomas Müller surely wish to remain, yet certainly don't wish to risk finding themselves placed in Leon Goretzka's unfortunate position. 

All of this takes place against the backdrop of a dominant start to the league campaign. Bayern have the opportunity to put the title race out of reach not long after the turn of the calendar year. Bayern's 47 league goals and plus-34 goal differential completely crush the stats of their nearest competitors. If xG determined results, Vincent Kompany's team would have won all 15 of their league fixtures and sit pretty in first with a maximum total of 45 points. This FCB incarnation is significantly stronger than Hansi Flick's famed 2019-2021 "max trophy" collectors, who were themselves greatly aided by the pandemic.

Attacker Michael Olise narrowly avoided claiming the crown as the new season's best transfer due to a downtick in form and the emergence of Wolfsburg's Mohamed Amoura. The Aleksandar Pavlovic and Joao Palhinha injuries created just enough speed bumps in the midfield mix to yield some poor results in Europe. On the topic of ill-timed injuries leading to poor results, Harry Kane's loss just prior to the big Pokal match-up made all the difference the domestic cup. Moreover, we almost certainly wouldn't be talking about a league loss against Mainz had Kane been fit. 

Poor Min-Jae Kim and Dayot Upamecano - after having every last mistake they ever made subject to harsh scrutiny - don't get nearly enough credit for all they've done right thus far this season. Such is sadly the case in life. Errors are scarcely forgotten. Successes quickly fade. Bayern's first trophy-less year since the 2011/12 campaign simply made permanent anti-heroes out of a lot of ultra talented players. The FCB defensive ranks shall get stronger once Hiroki Ito and Josip Stanisic return from injury. 

Dead-Weight Ledger = Adam Aznou (LB), Tarek Buchmann (CB), Leon Goretzka (CM), Mathys Tel (LW), Arijon Ibrahimovic (CF)

One expects little outgoing traffic this Winter as no one on the dead weight ledger really wants out. All the above listed players retain a chance of earning minutes. Some prospects more or less permanently consigned to the reserves might be loaned out. The talk of Goretzka moving this January - in the opinion of this commentator - is just plain laughable. The 29-year-old has absolutely no reason to take a deep pay cut and effectively declare himself ready to finish out his career in relative obscurity. 

Expiring contracts =  Manuel Neuer (GK), Sven Ulreich (GK), Alphonso Davies (LB), Eric Dier (CB), Joshua Kimmich (DM), Leroy Sané (RW), Thomas Müller (AM)

The second paragraph in the introductory section addresses all the specific players (excluding Dier) sitting on expiring contracts. If one wishes to take recent public interviews and statements as a bellwether, Max Eberl harbors little intention of playing nice with any of his negotiating partners. Many Germans actually presently joke that Eberl is rapidly turning into Uli Hoeneß. It's an uncanny and not necessarily process to observe to observe. The FCB chief personnel executive's tone, inflection, and acerbic manner of speaking have become remarkably "Hoeneß like". 

Perhaps Eberl - a native Bavarian - always possessed this tendency and none of us noticed. Perhaps - after all the abusive he's endured following his unpopular moves to Leipzig and Bayern - Eberl can't hope to operate without a massive chip on his shoulder. Maybe it's simply a matter of anyone tasked with running the Bayern front office needing to operate with a ruthless and pitiless cutthroat flair. We all know how it ended for more considerate personalities such as Oliver Kahn and "Brazzo". Jesus himself would probably begin to sound like Hoeneß if placed in the FCB pressure cooker.

Further Needs =  GK, LB, CB, RB, SS, LW, LS, CF

Most all of Bayern's "needs" can be deferred until next season. As a manner of illustrating this, consider the most "acute" need on the current roster: That of a right fullback. Stanisic, Kimmich, Konrad Laimer, and Raphaël Guerreiro demonstrate that this "need" hardly qualifies as so very urgent at all. Gurreriro's positioning this season even makes one wonder if the team needs a short-striker. Kompany deployed the Portuguese international that high up front against Heidenheim this year to excellent effect. Guerreiro's form is of some relevance. 

Virtually no incoming January transfer rumors have any serious weight behind them. This happens to be for the very good reason that this wealthy club possesses a much more exigent financial problem. Namely, getting Jamal Musiala tied down with what promises to be a record deal. An organization that famously cracked the €1 billion revenue mark this year still hasn't run a transfer surplus (or indeed come anywhere close) since the 2018/19 season. Musiala's new salary shall constitute a historic outlay. A sale to generate revenue counts as more likely.

The big "sell off" will come this Summer as Eberl offloads players such as Serge Gnabry, and potentially one of the better performing central defenders. After Musiala's big pay-day, the focus shifts onto finding a way to finance the purchase of Florian Wirtz. This gets very tricky. Offloading one of the actors sitting on expiring contracts this Winter could conceivably make Wirtz's purchase work, but remains highly risky with Kompany working with a 27-man-roster. If Eberl feels like playing a risky hand in pursuit of the ultimate goal, Davies will be sold this month.  

Rumored Links = Theo Hernandez (LB), Nico Williams (LW), Jamie Gittens (LW), Julien Duranville (LW), Henrique Carmo (RW)