Bundesliga Relegation Calendar: Which bottom side has the hardest run-in?

12. Hamburg - 31 pts

Hamburg are most likely the last team you can push any relegation threat onto, despite Union Berlin's manager change which saw them sack Steffen Baumgart and promote the Bundesliga's first ever female coach.

They play arch rivals Werder Bremen on saturday in a relegation six-pointer and a loss in this could muddle up the relegation battle once again especially if their other rivals St. Pauli grab any positive result against Köln.

Hamburg's biggest reason why they currently sit so comfortably in the Bundesliga table is not recent form as much as it is previous unexpected results like a win against Stuttgart in November and a draw against Bayern earlier this year.

For a first season in the Bundesliga, little complaints can remain for Hamburg fans as the first priority is survival and they seem to be on a good track for this with six points off 16th place.

The main reason as to why they still have a risk of relegation and feature in this article is due to the hiccups on the road which may still pop up like against Bremen this weekend. 

Remaining fixtures:

Bremen (a)

Hoffenheim (h)

Eintracht Frankfurt (a)

Freiburg (h)

Bayer Leverkusen (a)

Bulinews relegation threat calculator : 10%
 

13. 1. FC Köln - 30 pts

Köln probably have one of the biggest weapons to their disposal of any bottom half side battling for relegation: their attack.

The Köln attack is more European football than relegation as it has provided them 43 goals which is more than any other side outside of the top seven. 

Köln's front three of Ragnar Ache, Jakub Kaminski and Said El Mala have 34 goal contributions between them. Outside of Bayern's Kane, Diaz and Olisé trio, this is one of the strongest frontlines in the Bundesliga.

Thanks to this, they have had ten games where they have scored two or more goals this season. However, the defence remains a huge issue at Köln.

With 50 goals conceded, Köln's defence has huge gaps and the consistent chop and change of backlines for the Billy Goats has lacked the consistency of defensive partnerships.

Injuries have been an issue for the club too, with at one point upwards of seven players being injured or suspended for Köln earlier this year.

One thing that remains consistent is the pure entertainment of end-to-end football for the cathedral side with some more stability coming in the shape of the three-back like against Eintracht Frankfurt.

Remaining fixtures remain somewhat kind with Köln still to play both Heidenheim and before this St Pauli this Friday so they have every chance of staying up.

Remaining fixtures:

St Pauli (a)

Bayer Leverkusen (h)

Union Berlin (a)

Heidenheim (h)

Bayern Munich (a)

Bulinews relegation threat calculator : 15%

14. Borussia Möchengladbach - 30 pts

Borussia Mönchengladbach have been stuck in limbo for a number of years now. The transition in a post-Marco Rose era has not run anywhere near as smoothly as hoped. 

Adding to this, external factors like captain Rocco Reitz moving to RB Leipzig in the summer may have dampened moods in the Rhine side camp over the past few months. 

On the pitch, Borussia Mönchengladbach has stumbled through results against bottom side Heidenheim (a 2-2 draw) and against Köln (3-3) to the point where they are more walking to another year in the Bundesliga rather than full sprinting. 

With one very winnable fixture still to go against Wolfsburg, it remains to be seen whether this one game will be enough to keep them up with all other fixtures being tough. 

However, Borussia Mönchengladbach has what every bottom half side wants in their arsenal which is a top striker. Haris Tabakovic has netted 11 goals this season which is a neat tally for a bottom five team attacker. 

Therefore, guaranteed goals await the Foals (die Föhlen) and will no doubt keep them on track for safety so long as the current momentum continues. A five point gap to 16th and nine points to 17th means that they are in good position to stay up as it stands.

Remaining fixtures:

Mainz (h)

Wolfsburg (a)

Borussia Dortmund (h)

Augsburg (a)

Hoffenheim (h)

Bulinews relegation threat calculator : 20%

15. Werder Bremen - 28 pts

After finishing 9th and 8th respectively in the last two Bundesliga campaigns, it probably wasn't expected that the upwards trajectory of Bremen would take such a dip this season. 

Adding to this, losses since February against bottom half or mid table sides of Mainz, St Pauli and most recently Köln have not helped. 

Despite this, Bremen are set up nicely for this Bundesliga crunch time relegation battle thanks to recent form of wins in late February to March against Wolfsburg, Heidenheim and a massive 4-1 demolition of Union Berlin. 

However, the international break did the north German side no favours as two losses in two including against newly promoted Köln cut all momentum of the other side of the internationals.

Despite this, Bremen fans can remain hopeful that their club has it in them to avoid the entire bottom three despite the tough remaining fixture list but they will need to rely on Justin Njinmah netting a few more than his current five Bundesliga goals to keep them up.

Remaining fixtures:

Hamburg (h)

Stuttgart (a)

Augsburg (h)

Hoffenheim (a)

Dortmund (h)

Bulinews relegation threat calculator : 35%

16. St. Pauli - 25 pts

St. Pauli are 16th in the Bundesliga, but despite this they arguably have the best remaining fixtures out of any team in the bottom five or six.

Three games against bottom six sides, Heidenheim, Köln and Wolfsburg will be the deciding ones in their season and with Wolfsburg potentially already down into the 2. Liga by the final matchday this is a must-win.

However, the 5-0 defeat to Bayern Munich last weekend (which can happen to any bottom half side this season) will not help confidence.

Their game on friday against Köln becomes especially difficult as Köln won their first Bundesliga tie since early February against Bremen on Sunday.

At the very least, games against relegation rivals may help them to close the three point gap to Werder Bremen but current form and lack of recent wins since February do not play into the Hamburg city club's hands.

Therefore, they still possess a very real risk of relegation even if they end up having to face two games against a 2. Bundesliga side in late May.

Remaining games:

Köln (h)

Heidenheim (a)

Mainz (h)

RB Leipzig (a)

Wolfsburg (h)

Bulinews relegation threat calculator : 50%

17. VfL Wolfsburg - 21 pts

Wolfsburg have had a historically bad Bundesliga season this time out, they have never had such a low tally of points after 29 matchdays. 

With a top eight squad market value (Transfermarkt), the team is heavily underperforming their value and with the quality they have.

It is fair to state that injuries have played a part in their survival hopes dwindling but also big name signings like Christian Eriksen and Vini Souza have simply not helped Wolfsburg perform well enough as a team.

This situation mirrors one of previous teams that have tried to sign big names and have battled with relegation as a result like Union Berlin in 2023-24 where they signed Leonardo Bonucci.

However, one hope for die Wölfe is that they have managed to survive in 16th place twice before (2017 and 2018) but it's fair to state that the points tallies (33 and 37) they accrued in these seasons are way beyond their projections for this season.

Like a few of the teams around them (Köln and Heidenheim), Wolfsburg still have to play Bayern which will prove a tough test.

Just like Heidenheim, Wolfsburg's biggest hope comes in the form of that 16th place and two successful Bundesliga playoff games.

Remaining games: 
Union Berlin (a)

Borussia Moenchengladbach (h)

Freiburg (a)

Bayern Munich (h)

St Pauli (a)

Bulinews relegation threat calculator : 65%

18. Heidenheim - 19 pts

In one of their most positive results of the season, Heidenheim managed to beat Union Berlin 3-1 on Saturday (11th April) to close the gap between them and 17th Wolfsburg to two points.

Adding to this, positive results in draws against the Rhine-duo of Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen before this were steps in the right direction.

However, their run in looks a mixed bag with tough matches against Bayern and Freiburg (who are still hunting for Europe) to come. Within this, games mixed in like the 6-pointer against St. Pauli in two matches time will give them some hope.

Despite this, games against Köln on the second to last matchday and a by-then already safe Mainz with an outside shot of Europe may be meaningless if the gap between them and safety has already widened too much.

The most realistic path of safety, unfortunately for Heidenheim fans, remains survival via 16th place relegation play-offs in closing the six point gap with St. Pauli with a win at home against the north German side in two weeks time.

Remaining games: 
Freiburg (a)

St Pauli (h)

Bayern Munich (a)

Köln (a)

Mainz (h)

Bulinews relegation threat calculator : 85%