Bodø, Beşiktaş and Viking: why German clubs' European weeks are a trap for bettors

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On Tuesday, Bayern Munich were 1/11 to win in Stavanger and drew 3-3 with Viking. On Wednesday, Borussia Dortmund were 21/20 at Bodø/Glimt and lost 1-0. On Thursday, Hoffenheim went into their home game with Beşiktaş as narrow favourites and lost 3-2.

Three nights, three upsets, and this weekend's Bundesliga prices sit right in the middle of it all, with seven German clubs back in Europe from Tuesday.

The obvious conclusion is that European weeks scramble the form book. The more useful question is where the trap actually lies: in the European games themselves, or in the weekends either side of them? This season's numbers point more clearly one way than the other.

Stavanger, Bodø and Sinsheim: a week to forget

Viking, playing the first home league-phase game in their history, raced into an early lead through Gianni Stesness and Peter Christiansen. Harry Kane and Luis Díaz led the comeback, but Michael Olise, already booked, was sent off in the 74th minute for throwing the ball at Viking captain Zlatko Tripic, and the Norwegian champions took a late point.

"The red card is incredibly stupid, of course, we have addressed that," said Vincent Kompany, who added that he had told Olise: “the number ten was smarter than you.”

A day later in Bodø, Niko Kovač made five changes from the 2-2 draw with Werder Bremen, leaving Felix Nmecha, Marcel Sabitzer and Serhou Guirassy on the bench and Nico Schlotterbeck out of the squad. Fredrik Sjøvold's 52nd-minute strike settled it, and Dortmund finished with an xG of just 0.79. "We weren't even in the game until we conceded the goal," Kovač admitted.

Then came Hoffenheim, beaten 3-2 at home by Beşiktaş for a fourth straight defeat in all competitions. "This defeat is no coincidence," said Christian Ilzer. “There is a lot of work for us to do.”

It was not a collapse across the board. Leipzig beat PSV 1-0, Stuttgart won 3-0 in Bratislava, Leverkusen won 4-0 at Lech Poznań and Freiburg edged Jablonec 3-2.

The badge is priced in, the pitch is not

The most striking thing about Viking and Bodø is how differently they looked at home. In September, Bayern beat Bodø 5-0 in Munich and Stuttgart beat Viking 3-1. Back in Norway, the same two sides took four points off Germany's two biggest clubs.

Part of that is the surface. "There is no question that the artificial grass in Stavanger gives us an advantage; that is our secret weapon," Viking co-coach Morten Jensen said before the game. Dortmund spent their final session in Bodø getting used to the artificial turf in six degrees, with Maxi Beier the only player brave enough to train in shorts.

Part of it is pedigree. Bodø have beaten Roma 6-1, knocked out Lazio on the way to a Europa League semi-final, and last season beat Manchester City at home, won at Atlético Madrid and saw off Inter in the play-offs. They also drew 2-2 with Dortmund last December.

And part of it is timing. Team sheets arrive an hour before kick-off, so anyone who backed Dortmund at 21/20 earlier in the day was backing a side without Nmecha, Sabitzer, Guirassy or Schlotterbeck in the starting XI.

In short, the market priced the names on the shirts, not the conditions or the line-up.

The "European hangover": what this season's numbers say

The other half of the conventional wisdom is that German clubs suffer at the weekend after a European night. So far this season, that has largely been a myth.

After the first Champions League round in September, Bayern won their next league game, Dortmund beat Paderborn 3-0 and Leipzig shrugged off a 4-1 defeat at Como to beat Hamburg 5-0. The exception was Stuttgart, who lost 2-1 at Hoffenheim three days after beating Viking.

After the Europa League opener, Leverkusen followed a 2-0 win over Celje by beating Leipzig 2-0. Hoffenheim, on the other hand, lost 2-0 in Crete on a Thursday night and then 3-1 at promoted Paderborn on the Sunday.

That makes five wins from seven for German clubs in the league game after a European fixture. The two defeats came from the thinner squads, and one followed a Thursday-to-Sunday turnaround after a long trip. For the big clubs, the hangover has barely registered. It is the mid-table sides juggling two competitions that have felt it.

Matchday 6: between two European weeks

This weekend's fixtures land squarely between two European rounds.

Bayern are 1/4 at home to RB Leipzig on Saturday evening. Both played on Tuesday, and Leipzig did not have to travel, having beaten PSV at home. It is the least worrying of the post-Europe prices, but 1/4 leaves very little margin.

Dortmund are 3/5 at Union Berlin, sandwiched between Bodø and a trip to Sabah in Azerbaijan on Tuesday. Nmecha, Schlotterbeck and Guirassy are expected back, but this is one to check the team sheet for. Stuttgart, the only Champions League side to lose after a European week so far, are 5/6 at Hamburg after their win in Bratislava.

On Sunday, Leverkusen are 3/4 at home to Freiburg, with both sides coming off Thursday games. Patrik Schick was meant to play about 30 minutes in Poznań but managed almost an hour after Martin Terrier's injury. "The plan before the match was that I would only play for maybe 30 minutes," he said.

Then there is Hoffenheim, priced at 11/10 at bottom-placed Gladbach despite four straight defeats and another Thursday night. That is not a tip, but it is the clearest example of a reputation price this weekend.

Read the team sheet, not the badge

Three lessons stand out. Short prices on German giants away in unfamiliar conditions have been the real trap. The weekend after Europe has mostly been kind to the deep squads and less so to the thinner ones. And the team news an hour before kick-off is worth far more than a club's reputation.

It is a lesson esports followers learned long ago. Schalke, back in the Bundesliga this season, played in League of Legends' top European league until selling its place for a reported €26.5m in 2021, and with the game's World Championship under way in the United States since 15 October, anyone comparing League of Legends betting sites will know that a patch change can turn yesterday's favourite into today's outsider just as quickly as a plastic pitch in Stavanger.

The next test comes quickly, with the Champions League back on 20 and 21 October, and Leverkusen at OFI and Freiburg at Monaco two days later. The badge is priced in. The pitch, the plane and the team sheet often are not.

Odds correct at the time of writing and subject to change.